新概念英語第四冊
Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect
1 . The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart,現代氣象模型以一個坐標圖來顯示，圖中每個點大約是間隔60英里。
2 . since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.因為地面工作站和衛星不可能看到地球上的每一個地方。
3 . from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.從小塵暴和暴風發展到只有衛星上可以看到的席捲整塊大陸的漩渦。
4 . The Butterfly Effect is the reason.原因是蝴蝶效應。
5 . and beyond six or seven they are worthless.如果超過六七天，天氣預報就沒有了任何價值。
6 . By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.到12︰01時，那些波動就已經會在1英尺遠的地方造成偏差。
7 . For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster,對於小片的惡劣天氣--對一個全球性的氣象預報員來說，
8 . Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 1202, then 12.03.在正午時分，一個功能巨大的計算機搜集了所有的資料，並算出在每一個點上 12︰01、12︰02、12︰03時可能出現的情況。
9 . The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton,New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.計算機無法推斷出1個月以後的某一天，新澤西州的普林斯頓究竟是晴天還是雨天。
10 . Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature,再假定每個傳感器都極端準確地讀出了溫度、
11 . and so on up to the size of the globe.如此等等，一直到全球的範圍。
12 . Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale,很快這種偏差會增加到10 英尺的範圍，
13 . pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.氣壓、濕度和氣象學家需要的任何其他數據。
14 . small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly.小"可以意味著雷暴雨和暴風雪--任何預測的質量會很快下降。
15 . rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.並按1英尺的間隔從地面一直排列到大氣層的頂端。
16 . But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart,假設地球上可以佈滿傳感器，每個相隔1英尺，
17 . and even so, some starting data has to guessed,既使是這樣，有些開始時的資料也不得不依靠推測，
18 . At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average.正午時分，傳感器之間的距離會掩蓋計算機無法知道的波動、任何偏離平均值的變化。
19 . Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features,錯誤和不可靠性上升，接踵而來的是一系列湍流的微狀，
20 . Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative,世界上最好的兩三天以上的天氣預報具有很強的猜測性，